title

Unveiling the ecological drivers of the great jerboa’s range: a species distribution model with implications for plague risk

author(s)

Sergiy Mezhzherin (orcid: 0000-0003-2905-5235) (1)
Volodymyr Tytar (orcid: 0000-0002-0864-2548) (1)
Hanna Rashevska (orcid: 0000-0002-0523-133X) (2)
Alina Potopa (orcid: 0000-0002-0523-133X) (2)

affiliation

(1) I. I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology, NAS of Ukraine (Kyiv, Ukraine)
(2) Kryvyi Rih State Pedagogical University (Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine)

bibliography

Theriologia Ukrainica. 2025. Vol. 30: 55–66.

DOI

language

English, with Ukrainian summary, titles of tables, captures to figs

abstract

The great jerboa (Allactaga major), a keystone rodent of Eurasian deserts and steppes, is of dual conservation and epidemiological concern, being Near Threatened and a natural reservoir of plague. To understand the fundamental drivers of its distribution and identify potential plague reservoir zones, we developed a robust Species Distribution Model (SDM) using a comprehensive set of climatic, soil, and vegetation variables across its Eurasian range. Occurrence data were refined and modelled using the Maxent algorithm within the ‘flexsdm’ framework, with model interpretation advanced via SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values. Our model accurately predicted the species’ known range from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. SHAP analysis revealed that climate, rather than soil or vegetation biomass, acts as the primary, range-defining filter. The three most influential predictors were Precipitation of the Driest Week (Bio14), Temperature Annual Range (Bio07), and Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Week (Bio06), defining thresholds for aridity tolerance, continentality, and hibernation survival, respectively. Notably, the highest-ranked variable, Bio14, which coincides with the late-winter (February–March) period preceding hibernation emergence, revealed a finely tuned ecological mechanism. The SHAP dependence plot showed a distinct non-linear optimum, where suitability peaks at approximately 6 mm of precipitation. This window likely represents the essential cue for germinating the annual ephemerals that form the critical post-hibernation food pulse, a link supported by a strong correlation (r = 0.68) between this precipitation and April vegetation greenness (NDVI). This shifts the understanding of the species’ distribution from one of simple physiological tolerance to obligate ecological synchrony. Consequently, areas of high predicted suitability, particularly in southern and eastern Kazakhstan (e.g. Zhambyl, Turkistan, and Almaty oblasts), delineate a continuous ecological corridor representing potential enzootic plague reservoir zones. Our SDM thus transcends a predictive map to diagnose the core abiotic constraints and a key trophic bottleneck defining the species’ niche, providing a vital evidence base for both targeted conservation strategies and proactive, risk-based public health surveillance in endemic plague regions.

keywords

Allactaga major, species distribution modelling (SDM), ecological niche, phenological synchrony, zoonotic risk

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