title

Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) in Europe

author(s)

Volodymyr Tytar (orcid: 0000-0002-0864-2548)

affiliation

I. I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology, NAS of Ukraine (Kyiv, Ukraine)

bibliography

Theriologia Ukrainica. 2026. Vol. 31: 143–156.

DOI

language

English, with Ukrainian summary, titles of tables, captures to figs

abstract

The golden jackal (Canis aureus) is undergoing one of the most rapid and extensive range expansions of any terrestrial carnivore in modern Europe, prompting an urgent need to understand its primary drivers. While climate warming has been widely invoked as a facilitating factor, quantitative evidence linking specific climatic thresholds to the expansion has remained limited. Here, we employ a species distribution modelling (SDM) framework using Maxent, calibrated with 840 spatially thinned occurrence records across Europe and evaluated across three independent climate databases (CliMond, WorldClim, and CMCC-BioClimInd). We apply SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to hierarchically rank and interpret the contribution of individual climatic variables to predicted habitat suitability. Our models demonstrate robust predictive performance (AUC>0.7; continuous Boyce Index>0.7). SHAP analysis identifies five predominant drivers: Temperature Annual Range, Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month, Temperature Seasonality, Isothermality, and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter. Critically, the Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month exhibits a sharp threshold effect, with suitability increasing rapidly above -15°C and peaking near -3°C, consistent with the hypothesis that the northward retreat of severe winter cold is a primary enabler of expansion. Our model predicts high habitat suitability for the golden jackal in polar regions of Norway and Russia, including areas above the Arctic Circle—a prediction that warrants cautious interpretation. This finding suggests that the species may tolerate climatic conditions traditionally considered prohibitive for a mesocarnivore, but confirmation of successful reproduction above the Arctic Circle remains limited. We conclude that the golden jackal's expansion is consistent with a climate-facilitated natural range shift, with direct implications for its legal status and management under frameworks such as the EU Habitats Directive. More broadly, our study illustrates the power of combining SDM with explainable AI to uncover the hierarchical climatic architecture underpinning rapid faunal change in a warming world.

keywords

Canis aureus, range expansion, climate change, Maxent, SHAP analysis, species distribution modelling

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